It happened again.
Another year, another unprecedented, record-breaking admissions season in selective/rejective colleges.
The numbers are staggering
Class of 2026 Admission Results - College Kickstart
The numbers were so low in the Ivy League that some of them chose not to publish their data
And this amidst a national trend of decreasing enrollment across all colleges. There are actually more openings in college this year than last.
There is plenty of room for students to matriculate, just not in this narrow band of elite, “brand name” schools. Let me be crystal clear on this point: “college” isn’t hard to get into, this small cohort of schools is.
Admission percentages at selective colleges were already in a steep decline owing to the deliberate over recruiting of students for the purpose of driving down US News and World Reports admissions rates, giving rise to the label “rejective” colleges (colleges that reject far more students than they admit).
Then COVID happened, and SATs became optional at most colleges. That school that you would never even consider applying to suddenly became a “why not apply?” So they did.
Then colleges–driven by equity initiatives meant to level the economic playing field–began waiving application fees. Reduced costs enabled students to apply to more colleges. And they did.
All of this was facilitated by the Common App, which makes it super easy to apply to multiple colleges. Unlike the old days in which we needed to borrow a typewriter and a gallon of white-out to type out each individual application, now students can enter their information once and apply freely to as many schools as they wish. You guessed it–they did.
This combination of factors–ease of applying and reduction of limiting factors–unleashed a tsunami of applications onto selective college Admissions offices this fall. And many, many more kids were rejected than applied.
There is no reason to believe that this is not going to happen again next year. Most colleges have already decided to forego SATs another year at least. In order to ensure access to economically disadvantaged kids, the absence of application fees isn’t likely to go away. And the Common App (and other similar platforms) is here to stay. And Newton’s first law of physics states that an object in motion tends to stay in motion; the momentum has already swung toward higher numbers and there’s no indication that it will settle back next year.
It reminds me of starting a brush fire. There is that moment where the conflagration reaches a point at which you can no longer control what happens; you started the process but it quickly exceeded your ability to influence it. Seems very similar to what has happened with application numbers at the schools that were already the hardest to get into.
But something’s got to give. This isn’t a sustainable situation.
Which means that either the colleges or the kids need to change.
I think that colleges will not change–or at least won’t change enough to remedy the situation expeditiously. Consider the small private elite liberal arts college in Maine (there are three of them). They matriculated around 900-1,000 students of the 10-15K that applied this year. Even if they responded to the demand by hiring 10 additional Admissions counselors (assuming that they could afford to do so, and that there was existing office space for them)–which would ensure that each application was given greater attention and consideration–it wouldn’t result in a higher percentage of admission. They still have the same number of residence rooms available, only so much space in the dining commons, only so many classrooms. Accommodating greater student numbers would require substantial infrastructure development, which couldn’t happen in time for Fall 2023, even if they determined that it made good economic sense to expand. So while the composition of the class (who gets in) might change in this scenario, the overall numbers won’t. The number of students that can be accommodated still limits the number of opportunities to attend. Many more students will be denied than admitted, again.
Here’s an article suggesting how the selective admission schools can fix this broken system: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/change-college-acceptance-application-process/627581/
If this happens–in part or whole–it’s not likely to be next year; institutions of higher education typically don’t pivot that quickly. So I think that it’s the kids that are going to be the ones making adjustments in order to navigate this newfound, rapidly unfolding landscape. Here are my thoughts on how.
Think about selective colleges by their other name: “lottery” schools. The chances of getting in to some of these schools is the equivalent of the chance that you have to win the lottery. It’s not prudent to plan a future that relies on winning the lottery, in any reasonable life scenario. If you’re feeling lucky, choose a couple of lottery schools and throw your hat into the ring to see what happens. But don’t count on winning. To do so would just be setting yourself up for disappointment.
Be really clear on your motivation for applying to selective colleges. If, in all honesty, it’s really just about name-dropping and impressing others with your postsecondary plans, do more research. Focus on the learning instead of name recognition. One of my favorite resources is Colleges That Change Lives https://ctcl.org/category/college-profiles/ Originally a book, this website has 40+ profiles of high quality learning environments, some of which are even in the likely category (~ 80% admission). Rejecting high numbers of student applications isn't an accurate measure of instructional quality. If you focus on or limit your applications to rejective schools you may find yourself without a plan in Fall 2023.
Look outside New England if you are interested in a selective college. Students at my high school have a similar profile to others that favor colleges in the Northeast. It typically comes down to institutional needs–not individual merits–that determines who gets in. If the first chair violin in the orchestra is graduating, the Dean of Enrollment Management will direct the Admissions staff to give greater weight to kids that play the violin. Starting a women’s crew team? Tall, athletic women are suddenly advantaged. Determined to increase the number of first generation students attending your college? Then students whose parents did not attend college will receive greater attention. It is impossible to predict from year to year what an institution’s priorities will be; of all the data that can be mined from colleges, this is not something that is made available to the public. One element that figures in admission is geographical location; a student that might be background noise in the Northeast is a noticeable outlier in the South or Midwest. Colleges love to be able to say that they have students from all 50 states. A kid from Maine applying to Washington will–all things being equal–get more consideration than if they apply in Massachusetts. Leverage this reality to your advantage. A good resource here is the Fiske Guide https://www.shermans.com/book/9781492664987 It includes a comparable schools feature that helps you identify similar schools to those that you are looking up. If you are aware of College W, it will give you the names of colleges X, Y, and Z that are similar. This will help you identify some other schools to investigate that you may not have heard of before.
Find the college in the University of Maine System or Maine Community College System that is the best fit for you. It happens every year; kids determined to get out of Maine for college return home to Maine for college a semester or year after having a negative experience elsewhere. Fearful that it will be high school 2.0, many students don’t put any genuine effort into researching Maine public colleges. They apply, so that they have a school in the “likely” admission category, but they have no intention of attending. Anticipating that rejective colleges will be even more competitive next year (i.e. managing even higher numbers of applications), it seems prudent to have an affordable school that you would actually attend in your repertoire. In the absence of a Maine school, you may be able to find a New England school with a discount because Maine doesn’t have a program that you’re interested in. Check out the different programs here: Maine residents are eligible for more than 1,200 undergraduate and graduate degree programs through Tuition Break.
Look north. We tend to think southbound when considering colleges, but our close proximity to Canada makes undergraduate study there a very real possibility. My high school has a long tradition of sending a few students a year to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia. https://www.dal.ca/ It’s about an 8 hour drive, roughy the equivalent of going to Ithaca College in upstate New York. McGill in Montreal is another frequent choice: https://www.mcgill.ca/ That’s a 6 hour drive. Study in Canada offers a number of benefits: Top reasons to study in Canada And the people truly are super nice!
Consider a Gap Year. Gen Z is having its very own iteration of “the Great Resignation” that proliferated during COVID. Kids that have been thinking all along that college was a certainty–without a sense of why or what for–are scrutinizing the default thinking that going right off to college is what they want or need to do. GAP year programs have come a long way in the past 20 years, establishing them as a legitimate way to figure out what direction to take after graduating high school. Those of us raised by Boomers–who downloaded their worldview into our Gen X psyches–often carry the bias that kids need to go off to college immediately or they won’t go at all. What we should be fearing is kids going off to college because they feel internal or external pressure to do so, and then dropping out in a year or two with no degree and a hefty load of student loans. College is too expensive to “find yourself”, change majors five times, or take six years to finish a four year degree. It was in fact colleges that started recommending GAP year programs for students. The Dean of Admissions at Harvard in the 90’s noted how utterly burnt out their incoming classes were from doing what they needed to do to get into Harvard, leaving nothing in the tank when they arrived in Cambridge. This nod from an elite Ivy gave legitimacy to the notion, which has been growing ever since. Given the uncertainty of the process next year, stepping off of the admissions bandwagon for a year might be a welcome respite. Check out the possibilities at the Center for Interim Programs, which has been crafting GAP Year experiences since 1980 (https://www.interimprograms.com/ or the relative newcomer GAP Year Association (https://www.gapyearassociation.org/
This issue has been in the news a lot this week, scoring an interview and heavy quotations for my friend/mentor Michelle McAnaney at The College Spy
Her conclusion echoes mine: "The trouble is that people are looking at the rankings — the same top 30 to 50 colleges — and they are thinking about all those colleges," she said. "If you look outside them, there are wonderful hidden gems."